Easy credit- some way to go
Last week, the Government said that liquidity crunch was the biggest problem facing the country today. The RBI also acknowledged that the global crisis is hitting India far deeper than was expected. Little wonder then that a flurry of announcements have been made, all aimed at easing the liquidity crunch and increasing credit flow.
The current credit crisis itself happened because lending rules became tighter and interest rates were hiked as Government attempted to stem inflation (caused largely by the increase in the global price of crude). Credit is the backbone on which trade functions and the lack of credit (coupled with the decrease in demand) has led to the drop in industrial production.
Now that crude prices have fallen and inflation is down to 8.98 percent, the RBI has seriously turned to the issue of increasing credit flow and reviving the economy. The RBI announced CRR cuts twice this month; cut repo rates by 2 percentage points and in its latest set of announcements it has increased the ceiling on NRE (Non resident expatriable) deposits in a bid to attract funds from abroad.
Targeting revival of the real estate sector, NBFCs and capital markets specifically, it has tried to increase the flow of credit to these areas. The risk weightage attached to the real estate sector has been brought down and provisioning requirements on residential housing loans, commercial real estate and loans and advances qualifying as capital market exposures have been reduced.
Liquidity measures in place; now it is turn of credit flow
The real estate sector and the SSI sector are particular concerns for the government, as they are both highly labour dependent and any slowdown in these two areas will be followed by large scale unemployment. To infuse funds into these areas, the RBI has come out with a Rs 2000 crore package to finance SSIs through SIDBI, and a Rs 1000 crore package to NHB. Housing finance companies registered with NHB have been allowed to raise short term foreign currency.
NBFCs and mutual funds can now avail of a special repo rate up to March 2009.
The RBI has also announced a longer period of concessional pre-shipment credit for exporters of 270 days, compared to the earlier 180 days. But it is debatable how far this will help because the real problem for exporters has been the drop in demand.
Going by initial indications, these announcements will take time to translate into anything tangible for the common man. The markets, for one, have not reacted with much enthusiasm to any of these measures. Banks too are not expected to jump at the prospect of lending to the real estate sector as the cost of finance has gone up in the last one year.
Last year’s inflation control measures and attempt to bring down exposure to the real estate sector backfired. Rather than decrease exposure, banks simply raised the interest on deposits and continued to lend at higher rates. To bring down lending rates right now is not a very attractive proposition.
Banks did not react to the earlier set of measures to infuse liquidity in October by increasing lending; they bought government securities instead. So credit flow to the sector will happen only when the banks get over their reluctance to lend to housing sector once again.
In the longer term, banks will have to come back to the customers, interest rates will stabilize and people will begin to buy houses again. Even now, home loan companies assert that loan off-take among the middle and lower classes (who want to have a house to live in, opposed to buying a house as in investment) has not really come down.
The drop in inflation and the cut in crude oil prices have also not brought immediate cheer to the common man. The Consumer Price Index is not expected to drop any time soon. The crude oil price cut is expected to be passed on to the consumer only after oil companies have made good their losses.
We will have to wait for the banks to get over their concerns to begin lending and improve industrial confidence to finally see the effect of the measures.
